Disclaimer: The results of the analysis below are the author’s sole opinion and should not be considered investment advice.
USDT dominance, a measure of crypto market capitalization held by Tether’s Stablecoin, has risen towards 5% last month. This rise in the advantage indicator shows that market participants preferred to stand by rather than expand their capital.
yet, Monero There has been a strong recovery in the last two months. This means that there were buyers at a time when most of the market was afraid. Can the buyer protect the $ 200 area, or is there a wave of selling just around the corner?
XMR-12 hour chart
XMR showed a strong rise from $ 132.1 to $ 289.5 from February to March. Based on the lows and highs of these swings, a set of Fibonacci retracement levels (yellow) was plotted. $ 192.2 and $ 165.8 were shown to be 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. This pullback reversal is expected to occur within this area.
The cyan box highlighted in the chart has grown from $ 192 to $ 203 and has been in both supply and demand areas for the past two months. This area also merges with a psychological level of resistance of $ 200. In early March, the zone acted as a supply and refused to advance the bulls, but was switched to a demanding area later in the same month.
At the time of the press, it was once again tested as a demand zone, but selling pressure could push XMR further south and exceed $ 190.
The rationale
Source: TradingView XMR / USDT
The RSI outperformed the Neutral 50 and showed a steady upward trend throughout March and most of April. At the same time, OBV also rose and DMI showed a bullish trend with ADX (yellow) and + DI (green) above 20.
But in the past week, the momentum has changed. The RSI was below Neutral 50, the OBV was retreating and the DMI also showed a strong bearish trend in progress. The Arun index also showed a bearish trend, with Arundown (blue) predominant in the index.
As the OBV slides below the horizontal level plotted on the indicator, it is more likely that the XMR will drop towards the $ 180- $ 190 range.
Conclusion
The $ 200 area was a strong demand zone, but Monero could plummet below it in the coming days or weeks. In such scenarios, you can use the $ 165- $ 190 area to buy Monero for a longer period of time.
