Bitcoin (Bitcoin) After protecting a critical level, begin each new week and new month on a deliberately positive footing.
After a turbulent July when macro factors brought significant volatility, BTC’s price action has successfully provided weekly and monthly candlesticks in favor of the bulls.
The road to some form of recovery continues, and at several points in recent weeks, Bitcoin has appeared to suffer further behind the scenes. 40% loss in June.
But now that there is already optimism among analysts, there is one thing that is clear. This “bear market rally” does not yet mean the end of the tunnel.
As the summer of 2022 enters its final month, Cointelegraph will look at potential market triggers for Bitcoin that will remain near the highest levels since mid-June.
Spot Price Snatches Bear Market Trend Line
Things could have gotten worse when it came to Bitcoin’s July performance.
After seeing a nearly 40% loss in June, BTC/USD closed with a massive 16.8% gain last month, according to data from an analytical resource. Coin glass.
Despite briefly surpassing 20%, the July tally remains Bitcoin’s highest since October 2021.
With a solid foundation in place, the question among analysts is whether and how long the party will survive.
A fun day!
BTC closes D red when D, W and M close. W&M closed the green and Trend Precognition fired a new long on M. Tentative until the candle closes, but the fact that it has closed past the 50-month MA is interesting. time to cool down. Back to the morning chart. pic.twitter.com/ImWjNcXx91
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) August 1, 2022
“Since March, the first monthly closing price has been green,” said Josh Rager, a popular trader and analyst. answered.
“Prices are slowly rising after closing the month above the 2017 all-time high from the last cycle. I’m happy to be able to buy the dip.”
Others were more cautious, among them was fellow trader and analyst Crypto Toney, whose recent local highs just above $24,000 are still acting as unchallenged resistance on the day. said.
“I’m looking for a breakdown of this Bitcoin pattern and it remains short while it’s below the $ 24,000 supply zone it refused,” he said. Confirmed to Twitter followers.
Nonetheless, weekly and monthly closing prices have sealed some important levels as Bitcoin support. Specifically, the 200-week moving average has reversed from the resistance of the weekly chart, BTC / USD maintained the realized price. Cointelegraph Market Pro When TradingView indicate.
in the latest weekly newsletter Blockware, a blockchain infrastructure and cryptocurrency mining company released last week, also said that the reuse of the 180-period Indexed Moving Average (EHMA), just below $ 22,000 on its monthly charts, is “quite bullish.” ..
“Monthly also appears to be reclaiming the 180-week EHMA we have been talking about over the past few months as BTC’s macro accumulation area. Clemente writes.
“If it plays, the failed failure / breakout is a strong signal and is quite bullish.”
Macro triggers are cool in August
The big picture starting in August is one of mixed disbelief and relief about how the rest of the year will unfold.
In a short period of time, US equities overcame the volatility of the Federal Reserve last month and closed at a high in July.As a coin telegraph report, The demand for stock expansion rallies is increasing. This can only be good news for the highly correlated crypto market.
Meanwhile, Game of Trades, a popular Twitter account analyzing commodity status, predicted that oil would soon lose momentum, which would have a significant impact on US inflation.
more than now 40 year high, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is responsible for the Fed rate hikes putting pressure on risk assets across the board. So inflation could almost turn around and Fed policy could quickly turn the tables.
“Big sellers stepped in for oil on Friday,” one post over the weekend read.
“Crude oil prices appear ready to fall with the Consumer Price Index (CPI).”
Brent crude oil prices plummet as the West eases efforts to limit Russia #oil Transactions with#inflation Increases energy risk. Plans to keep Moscow out of the marine insurance market have been delayed. https://t.co/fwQPGft0Uc pic.twitter.com/44Lne5P7qT
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 1, 2022
But the global picture for commodities is not so straightforward, and macro analyst Alex Krueger warns that Europe’s energy crisis has yet to be reflected in market prices.
So for Bitcoin, the current recovery is more of a “bear market rally” than a return to true strength.
“Yes, this is a bear market rally…for now,” said Kruger I have written.
“If inflation drops quickly enough, which is feasible, and the European energy crisis is not exacerbated by a harsh winter, then this is also feasible, and this could be the start of a bull market. Now. No one knows where
Kruger added that the status quo should be maintained until “at least until the end of August” when the new Fed event impacts the market.
In order of importance, we listed the major interest rate decisions in September, the CPI in September, the Fed’s Jackson Hall Summit on August 25, and the August 10 CPI print in July.
In order, the most important upcoming events:
#1 Sep22: FOMC
# 2 Sep13: Consumer Price Index
# 3 Aug25: Jackson Hole
#4 August 2010: Consumer Price Index
If the market is overheated, expect the market to remove (sell) the risk a few days before each event.
Then, of course, there is the infamous ETH merger on September 19th.
—Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) July 30, 2022
Looking at the strength of the US dollar, the US dollar index (DXY) maintained a low that was not seen for almost a month on that day and is now below 106.
For Game of Trades, indices mattered more than numbers. After the parabolic uptrend, we have seen a clear turn in direction on the DXY daily chart.
“DXY broke a parabola. There’s only one way a broken parabola ends.” comment.
RSI casts doubt on price bottom
Looking at the on-chain signal, the rebound at one of Bitcoin’s core fundamentals wasn’t enough to convince analyst venture founders that the BTC price was bottoming out.
Zoom out A popular content creator claimed that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (DXY) is holding back after peaking in April 2021.
RSI measures How BTC/USD is overbought or oversold at certain prices, and hits record low readings since May.
Despite suggesting that Bitcoin is trading well below its fair value, RSI still has the “bullish momentum” that characterizes it running above $ 20,000 at the end of 2020. I haven’t recovered.
In April 2021, Bitcoin hit $58,000 before halving by the end of July.
“The only way to consider the July 2022 low as the bottom of the cycle is to consider the April 2021 high as the top of the cycle in this cycle,” says Venturefounder.
“Bitcoin and Altcoin RSI and bullish momentum peaked in April 2021 and did not recover for the rest of this cycle. Do you think we hit a bottom?”
Another notable oversold period for the RSI occurred shortly after the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. significantly affect Price strength goes into the half-life of the latest block subsidies.
Of course, BTC / USD never looked back and regained a record high in about six months.
Purpose ETF finally added to holdings
Things may be looking for institutional Bitcoin involvement Subtle signs of recovery It appears in the statistics.
The latest such signal comes from Purpose Bitcoin ETF, the world’s first bitcoin spot price Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
After possession suddenly decreased by 50% In June, the product finally added BTC again, suggesting demand is no longer falling.
The objective was to add 2,600 BTC, and commentator Jan Wuestenfeld further noted that the dormancy period of several weeks had ended.
“But assets under management are still far from all-time highs,” he said. Added.
However, the recovery trend is not everywhere. Looking at the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), the annoying trend of lack of demand continues.
Coinglass data shows that the premium, in fact the discount, to the fund’s spot price is now hovering around a record low of about 35%.
grayscale Continue legal action It has run against US regulators for refusing to allow spot bitcoin ETFs to launch in the domestic market. GBTC will be converted into such ETFs subject to permissible conditions.
New month, new horror
It has been a great ride, but crypto market sentiment is already back in the “fear” zone.
Latest reading from Crypto Fear & Greed Index Make sure that “neutral” sentiment takes less than a day, and that despite the prevalence of high prices, it’s difficult to stay calm.
The index measured 33/100 as of August 1st, still high compared to recent months, but already well below the 42/100 high seen a few days ago.
But for research firm Santiment, optimism remains. The company’s proprietary metric, which governs transaction volume relative to Bitcoin’s overall network value, ended in July in its own “neutral” territory.
The Transaction (NVT) token circulation model from network valuesafter printing bullish divergences in May and June, thus coming in at the latest with a monthly close.
“August could move in either direction, as prices have risen and token circulation has declined slightly, with neutral signals now,” Santiment said in a Twitter update on the latest numbers. summarized in
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