Bitcoin (BTC) Entering a new week with question marks about market fate ahead of another major US monetary policy decision.
BTC / USD is much more cautious after successfully sealing the weekly closing, the highest since mid-June, as the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise benchmark rates to combat inflation. Become.
Many wanted the pair to move out of recent trading limits and continue to rise, but at the start of the week the Fed’s weight was clearly visible, putting pressure on the already vulnerable risk asset scene.
The vulnerability is that miners’ tensions become a reality and the true cost of the mining industry. Bear market show.
At the same time, there are promising signs from some on-chain indicators, and long-term investors are still refusing to give in.
Cointelegraph looks at potential market movements during a tense week for cryptocurrencies, stocks and more.
Federal Reserve Board to Determine Next Rate Raise in “Another Fun” Week
This week’s story, where everything is equal, is undoubtedly the Fed rate hike.
Familiar with the story, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), July 26-27, will see policy makers determine the extent of the next rate fluctuations. This can be either 75 or 100 basis points.
As with many jurisdictions, US inflation is at its highest level in 40 years, and the progress seems to have surprised its establishment, as peak demands are even more profitable.
“It should be another fun thing,” said William Clemente, Lead Insight Analyst at Blockware. summary July 25th.
Interest rate decisions are scheduled for July 27, 2:00 pm EST. This is the date of the diary that may be accompanied by an increase in the volatility of the entire risk asset.
One analyst warned that this could be exacerbated by the low liquidity of the summer and the lack of buyers’ beliefs.
“Entering the ECB / FOMC / Tech Earnings with the least liquidity of the year. The market is back overbought. Bulls, put it on.” Twitter account Mac10 I have written..
Earlier posts also flagged the Q2 earnings report as potentially contributing to a decline in line with previous behavior.
Tech Earnings and the FOMC triggered two major crashes in 2022.
“This time is different” pic.twitter.com/XgS1dDOLce
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 22, 2022
“At this year’s FOMC event, BTC and risk assets surged, but they just sold out, is this different?” Fellow analytics account Tedtalksmacro Continue:
“At the June FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve raised 75bps, the largest increase since 1994. We expect even more significant increases before inflation” normalizes. ” Will be done. “
Even before the event begins to unfold, the week already feels different from the end — the Asian market is flat compared to last week’s bullish tone with the resurgence of Bitcoin and Altcoin as a whole.
In one argument, the Fed You can’t raise the price Meanwhile, Tedtalksmacro pointed out that the employment market is a target for continued hiking without stagnating the economy.
“Bitcoin struggles to exceed 28k until the data deteriorates,” he says. Added..
Spot prices don’t nail the major moving averages
BTC / USD has managed its best performance in over a month, but missed a regain of its basic 200-week moving average (MA) at $ 22,800.
After closing at around $ 22,500, Bitcoin began to fall to the bottom of its latest trading range and is still below $ 22,000 at the time of writing.
Good morning legend
Future chart updates
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 25, 2022
“Observing the IF, you’ll find horizontal support of $ 21,666. Patience,” popular trader Ambessa. Said Twitter followers on his latest update.
Meanwhile, fellow account Crypto Chase suggested that a more modest rise is expected after returning to the 200-week MA.
“I’m chopping up a daily S / R (red box) that can’t flip to support 22.8K (Daily Resistance). I’ve tried multiple times but have failed so far,” he said. Told. I have written With a description chart:
“We will monitor 22.8K as a potential long-term entry support for 23.2K if prices rise again and are accepted.”
Later update I turned my eyes $ 21,200 as a potential bearish target. It also forms the support / resistance level of the daily chart.
However, Bitcoin is $ 21,900, which remains about $ 1,200 higher than the same points a week ago.
Elsewhere, modern pricing behavior wasn’t enough to change the long-term view. For Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant The macro bottom hasn’t appeared yetThis is potentially offered at a low price of $ 14,000.
“In line with the past half cycle, this is my most viable prediction of Bitcoin before the next half: BTC surrenders in the next 6 months and between the bottom of the cycle ($ 14-21k) (Somewhere) and then most often chopped at $ 28-40k, by 2023 it will be about $ 40,000 again by the next half, “said a retweeted forecast from June. repetition..
Difficulty returns to March level
The entire Bitcoin network has begun to change dramatically as a sign that miners’ troubles may have just begun due to low prices.
The latest adjustments are particularly noticeable, with a total difficulty of 5% off, foretelling changes in miner activity. This is the largest single decline since May 2021 and the next decline is scheduled for 10 days and is currently estimated to be an additional 2% decline.
Arguably the most important aspect of the Bitcoin network itself, difficulty adjustments also set the scene for recovery by leveling the competition for miners. The lower the difficulty level, the less competition there is overall, making it “easier” (or less energy consuming) to mine BTC.
But in the meantime, the data show that the need to float is still a concern. according to To CryptoQuant, the miner sent 909 BTC to the exchange on July 24th alone. This was the most common day since June 22nd, with a 5% reduction in difficulty.
Therefore, the miner’s turnaround remains invisible this week.
As Cointelegraph additionally reported, it Not just BTC price It is struggling miners in the current situation.
Congratulations on your MVRV-Z score
One of Bitcoin’s hottest on-chain metrics is probably above its most important level, zero.
July 25, Bitcoin MVRV-Z score Came back After a short week above, in the negative territory, doing so usually falls into the zone reserved for the bottom of the macro price.
Previous: 0.010-> Present: -0.000
— Glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) July 25, 2022
MVRV-Z is popular because of its extraordinary ability to show how BTC’s overbought or oversold is compared to “fair value” and to define the lowest rates.
The accuracy of catching the bottom has a two-week error, so the return may indicate a new period of price pressure.
At the beginning of July, Cointelegraph reported on the MVRV-Z. Give the worst scenario This time BTC / USD is $ 15,600.
Sentiment cools from 4 months high
For the crypto market, last week could have been a short period of unreasonable enthusiasm if emotional data was believable.
Latest numbers from Crypto Fear & Greed Index It is steadily declining from what was the most positive market sentiment since April.
As of July 25th, the index stands at 30/100. This is described as the “fear” that drives the overall mood, but five points above the “extreme horror” bracket that the market has previously spent. Record 73 days..
Nonetheless, sentiment has revived considerably since Fear & Greed hit some of them in mid-June. Record low level Just at 6/100.
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